Recovery Potential Assessment for 11 Designatable Units of Chinook Salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Part 2 : Elements 12 to 22

Abstract

Eleven Designatable Units (DUs) of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), within the Fraser River were assessed as Threatened or Endangered by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in 2018, and are currently under consideration for addition to Schedule 1 of the Species at Risk Act (SARA). The first part of the Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA) (Elements 1-11) provided DU descriptions, status updates and an assessment of the threats and factors limiting recovery. This second half provides potential recovery targets, a discussion of mitigation measures, population projections and a recommendation on allowable harm. Survival and recovery targets for each DU were suggested based on Wild Salmon Policy (WSP) benchmarks, with additional requirements about observed percent change in spawners. A projection model was used to assess likely future trajectories and the chances of meeting these targets, however, results are only available for DU2 (LFR Harrison). Despite efforts to produce the required input parameters for the stream-type DUs, significant uncertainties and a considerable lack of data prevented quantitative assessment, and hence these DUs were assessed qualitatively. Results for DU2 (LFR-Harrison) indicate that reaching the survival target under recent conditions is about as likely as not likely (48% chance), while meeting the recovery goal is unlikely (16% chance). Risks imposed by climate change and continued anthropogenic development add additional uncertainty that was only described qualitatively. Based on the quantitative assessment for DU2 (LFR-Harrison) and the qualitative assessment for the remaining DUs, it is recommended that human-induced mortality and other sources of harm identified in the threats assessment should be significantly reduced and in some cases prevented to provide the best chance for these populations to recover.