Évaluation du stock de crabe des neiges (Chionoecetes opilio) à Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador (divisions 2HJ3KLNOP4R) en 2024

Abstract

Status With status quo removals in 2025, Assessment Divisions (ADs) 3LNO and 3Ps are projected to be in the Healthy Zone of the Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) Snow Crab Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework, while ADs 2HJ and 3K are projected to be in the Cautious Zone. Recent and ongoing data deficiencies result in the exclusion of AD 4R3Pn from the NL Snow Crab PA Framework. Trends The overall exploitable biomass index has increased from historic lows in 2016 to 2018. In 2024, the exploitable biomass index remained near the same level as 2023. There have been declines in the exploitable biomass indices in ADs 3K and 3Ps over the last two years. Overall abundance indices of pre-recruit, small male, and mature female crab have declined and are near the lowest levels observed. The overall pre-recruit abundance index indicates poor recruitment prospects in the next 2–4 years. Fishery Exploitation Rate Indices (ERIs) decreased in most ADs in recent years. However, status quo removals in 2025 would result in ERIs outside the range permitted in the PA Framework in ADs 3K and 3Ps. The ERI is high in AD 4R3Pn. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The warm phase in ocean climate that started around 2020 continues, with warm bottom temperatures and record high sea surface temperature in 2024. Sustained warm ocean conditions are considered unfavorable for Snow Crab productivity. Total ecosystem biomass levels are approaching the post-collapse highs of the 2010s, with increases being driven by groundfish. Fish predation mortality on Snow Crab peaked in the mid-late 2010s and after some decline has been trending upwards since 2020. Current levels and trends in fish predation mortality could add additional pressure on the stock and hinder future growth. Short-term predictions of exploitable biomass based on climate variables indicate resource growth may be limited. Stock Advice As per the NL Snow Crab PA Framework and given that ADs 3LNO and 3Ps are in the Healthy Zone, the exploitation rates should not exceed 42%. As per the NL Snow Crab PA Framework and given that ADs 2HJ and 3K are in the Cautious Zone, the exploitation rates should not exceed 35%. While the current overall level of exploitable biomass is generally not a concern, unfavorable ecosystem conditions and low abundances of small Snow Crab indicate that stock productivity is expected to be poor in the near and medium term.