Assessment of Divisions 2J+3KL Capelin to 2024

Abstract

Status The 2024 Capelin acoustic biomass index was 647 kt (90% CI: 444–1,111 kt), and above the Limit Reference Point (155 kt) with greater than 95% probability. Trends The 2024 Capelin acoustic biomass index was higher than the recent time period (2018–23: median 286 kt) and similar to the post-collapse time series highs in 2013 and 2014. Since 1991 the Capelin acoustic biomass index has remained well below the pre-collapse level (1982–90: median 3,697 kt). Spawning timing and the larval abundance index in 2024 suggest production of an average year-class relative to the post-collapse period. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The warm phase in ocean climate that started around 2020 along with recent zooplankton biomass levels are currently favourable for Capelin productivity and condition, however long term impacts of increasing temperatures due to climate change on Capelin are unknown. Total biomass levels of the fish community are at or near post-collapse highs, with increases being driven by groundfish. Estimates of Capelin consumed by fish predators and predictions of Capelin biomass from Atlantic Cod diet. Evidence from environmental, fish diets, and fish community analyses suggest a generally positive outlook for Capelin in 2025, but uncertainty remains high. Stock Advice In 2025 the Capelin forecast model projects the acoustic biomass index to be above the Limit Reference Point with a 45 to 76% probability, depending on the timing of sea ice retreat. This forecasted index predicts a decline from the 2024 level to near post collapse average.