NAFO Subdivision 3Ps Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) Stock Assessment in 2024

Abstract

Status The 2025 Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) is projected to be below the Limit Reference Point (LRP) with a greater than 99% probability. The stock remains in the Critical Zone. Trends The stock has been in the Critical Zone since 2000, with SSB remaining at or near time series lows without trend since 2009. SSB in 2025 is projected to be 33.2 kt (95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 26.4 to 41.8), which is 50% (95% CI = 40–63%) of the LRP (66 kt). Recruitment is impaired and has remained well below the time series average since 1993. Natural mortality (M) increased considerably from the early-2000s to the 2010s reaching a time-series high in 2019, but decreased over the last five years coinciding with improvements in cod condition. The population weighted M estimate for ages 5–8 in 2024 is 0.32. Fishing mortality (F) declined from 2000 to the early-2020s, and has been low (0.02–0.04) over the last four years. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The ecosystem in 3Ps is undergoing structural changes associated with changing ocean climate. These oceanographic changes and bottom-up processes are important drivers of observed community shifts. Biological and ecosystem metrics indicate food limitation is negatively impacting stock productivity. Cod productivity is expected to be negatively impacted as warming continues. Stock Advice Projections are only provided to 2026 as uncertainty in the current abundance of young fish was likely to result in overestimates of stock growth. Projections indicate a very high (>95%) probability of stock growth to 2026. The stock remains well below the LRP over this period and is projected to be at 63% (95% CI = 51– 78%) of the LRP in 2026 under the adopted management procedure. Following the management procedure, the maximum total allowable catch would be 1,251 t for 2025. Given the low status and productivity of the stock, removals from all sources should be at the lowest possible level until the stock clears the Critical Zone.