NAFO subdivision 3Ps Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock assessment in 2023

Abstract

Status The 2024 Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) is projected to be below the Limit Reference Point (LRP) with a greater than 99% probability. The stock remains in the Critical Zone. Trends The stock has been in the Critical Zone since 2000, with SSB remaining at or near time series lows without trend since 2009. SSB in 2024 is projected to be 35.5 kt (95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 27.1–46.8), which is 54% (95% CI = 41–71%) of the LRP (66 kt). Recruitment is impaired and has remained well below the time series average since 1993. Natural mortality (M) increased from the early 2000s and has varied without trend at a relatively high level since 2008. The population weighted M estimate for ages 5–8 in 2023 is 0.35. Fishing mortality (F) has been declining since 2000. The population weighted F estimate for ages 5–8 in 2023 is 0.02. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations Ocean temperatures in 3Ps were at record highs in 2021–22. Ongoing warming and associated increased dominance of silver hake indicate that this ecosystem continues to experience structural changes. The impact of these changes are not fully understood but have been associated with reductions in stock productivity. Stock Advice Given the low status and productivity of the stock, continued fishery removals delay recovery prospects. Removals from all sources should be at the lowest possible level until the stock clears the Critical Zone. Under the adopted management procedure, stock growth in the short term (2027) will not be achieved with a high (>75%) probability. Under no removals a high probability of growth is achieved. Other levels of removals were not evaluated in this meeting. The stock remains in the Critical Zone in all cases. The age structure of the fishery is no longer consistent with that applied in the previous testing and adoption of the management procedure. The consequence of this change for stock rebuilding should be examined.