Modeling the energy mix and economic costs of deep decarbonization scenarios in a CGE framework
Modeling the energy mix and economic costs of deep decarbonization scenarios in a CGE framework
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- dc.contributor.author
- Gilmore, Elisabeth A.
- Ghosh, Madanmohan
- Johnston, Peter
- Siddiqui, Muhammad-Shahid
- Macaluso, Nick
- dc.date.accepted
- 2023-04-9
- dc.date.accessioned
- 2025-06-11T20:04:56Z
- dc.date.available
- 2025-06-11T20:04:56Z
- dc.date.issued
- 2023-12
- dc.description - en
- The paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to investigate changes in energy production and consumption, alongside consumption patterns when significantly reducing emissions from current levels. The model examines how the adoption of novel technologies, such as net-negative emission technologies, can enhance consumption levels while still achieving substantial emission reductions by 2050, both in North America and globally. Across the simulated scenarios, the model demonstrates how varying the availability of net-negative emission technologies alters conventional energy production patterns, which in turn impact global consumption levels. The paper describes these impacts across regions and sectors to highlight the energy and economic impacts under deep decarbonization futures.
- dc.description.abstract - en
- This paper investigates the energy mix and welfare implication of deep decarbonization pathways with net negative emission technologies for North America and globally to 2050 in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. The analysis uses an integrated assessment model (IAM), the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to develop three bounding emission scenarios: i) A business as usual pathway (BAU), ii) A pathway bounded by the Nationally Determined Contributions and attaining a 2oC end of century target (NDC-2oC), and iii) An increasing ambition pathway that attains a 1.5oC end of century target (NDC-1.5oC). These energy mix and economic impacts of these emissions pathways are then evaluated using Environment Canada’s Multi-Sector, Multi-Regional (EC-MSMR) CGE model. When bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture (DAC) are available, they play an important role in achieving emission reductions. Allowing the use of DAC preserves an additional 5% to 20% of the share of fossil fuels in North America and reduces welfare implications. This finding is robust to both the estimated price of and constraints on DAC deployment. Increasing the potential for fuel switching in the CGE model further reduces the welfare effects for deep decarbonization.
- dc.description.fosrctranslation - fr
- Ce document utilise un modèle d'équilibre général calculable pour étudier les changements dans la production et la consommation d'énergie, ainsi que les modèles de consommation en cas de réduction significative des émissions par rapport aux niveaux actuels. Le modèle examine comment l'adoption de nouvelles technologies, telles que les technologies à émissions nettes négatives, peut augmenter les niveaux de consommation tout en permettant des réductions substantielles des émissions d'ici 2050, tant en Amérique du Nord que dans le reste du monde. À travers les scénarios simulés, le modèle démontre comment la variation de la disponibilité des technologies à émissions nettes négatives modifie les modèles de production d'énergie conventionnelle, qui à leur tour ont un impact sur les niveaux de consommation globale. Le document décrit ces impacts à travers les régions et les secteurs afin de mettre en évidence les impacts énergétiques et économiques dans le cadre d'une décarbonisation poussée.
- dc.identifier.issn
- 2666-2787
- dc.identifier.uri
- https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/3720
- dc.language.iso
- en
- dc.publisher - en
- Elsevier
- dc.relation.isreplacedby
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100106
- dc.rights - en
- Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
- dc.rights - fr
- Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
- dc.rights.openaccesslevel - en
- Green
- dc.rights.openaccesslevel - fr
- Vert
- dc.rights.uri - en
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
- dc.rights.uri - fr
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.fr
- dc.subject - en
- Energy
- Combustible
- Renewable energy
- Climate change
- Fuels
- Greenhouse gases
- dc.subject - fr
- Énergie
- Fuels
- Energy
- Énergie renouvelable
- Changement climatique
- Combustible
- Gaz à effet de serre
- dc.subject.en - en
- Energy
- Combustible
- Énergie
- Renewable energy
- Climate change
- Fuels
- Greenhouse gases
- dc.subject.fr - fr
- Énergie
- Fuels
- Energy
- Énergie renouvelable
- Changement climatique
- Combustible
- Gaz à effet de serre
- dc.title - en
- Modeling the energy mix and economic costs of deep decarbonization scenarios in a CGE framework
- dc.type - en
- Accepted manuscript
- dc.type - fr
- Manuscrit accepté
- local.acceptedmanuscript.articlenum
- 100106
- local.article.journaltitle - en
- Energy and Climate Change
- local.article.journalvolume
- 4
- local.pagination
- 30 pages, annexes
- local.peerreview - en
- Yes
- local.peerreview - fr
- Oui
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