Évaluation du stock de morue du Nord (Gadus morhua) dans les divisions 2J3KL de NAFO en 2024

Abstract

The Northern Cod (Gadus morhua) stock inhabits waters off southern Labrador and eastern Newfoundland eastward to the edge of the continental shelf in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions (Divs.) 2J3KL. This stock was assessed through a Regional Peer Review Process (RPR) conducted March 18–21, 2024, in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) to address terms of reference provided by Fisheries Management. The general objective of this meeting was to provide advice on stock status and trends, to consider the effects of environmental conditions, and provide short- to medium-term projections of the stock. This is the first application of the updated assessment model and new Limit Reference Point (LRP) defined at the October 2023 Framework process. The assessment model was extended, through the inclusion of additional data, back to 1954 (previously starting at 1983). The longer term perspective provided by this model informed a revision of the LRP. While estimates of stock size since 1983 were similar, the previous LRP was roughly 40% higher. Following this revision, the stock was determined to be out of the Critical Zone since 2016. Under the current assessment, the 2024 Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) is estimated to be 1.2 times the LRP, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.7 to 2.1. There is an estimated 22% probability that the stock is in the Critical Zone. An upper stock reference has not been defined, however given the proximity to the LRP the stock is considered to be in the Cautious Zone. Following a period of growth from 2010 to 2016, SSB has remained unchanged. SSB in 2024 was estimated at 342 Kt (95% CI = 246–475 Kt). Estimated numbers of recruits (age 0) have remained unchanged since the mid-2010s, corresponding to about 80% of pre-collapse (1954– 90) levels. Natural mortality (M, ages 5+) has varied between 0.29 and 0.90 since 1995 (mean = 0.47) and in 2023 was above average [0.59 (95% CI = 0.32–1.12)]. Fishing mortality (F, ages 5+) has been below 0.05 since 2004 and in 2023 was 0.02 (95% CI = 0.01–0.03). Mortality rates of Northern Cod increase when there are insufficient prey in the system to support the population. Capelin are a key prey species for Northern Cod, and their collapse, coupled with sustained low productivity, has impeded the recovery and growth of the cod stock. Capelin are expected to remain around 10% of their pre-collapse levels, which limits prospects for cod stock growth. Projections of SSB to 2027 show that if total removals for 2023 are set to zero, the probability of the stock declining into the Critical Zone is 42%. However, if removals are doubled to 27,034 t (two times the model-estimated total of 13,517 t), this probability increases to 52%. With total removal levels examined here (0 to 27,033 t) the risk of stock decline from 2024 to 2027 is moderately high to high, ranging from 62% to 76%. There is no level of removals that gives a neutral to high (≥50%) probability of stock growth. Under current ecosystem conditions and total removals, the stock has not grown since 2016 and short-term prospects for stock growth are limited even under zero removals. Although primarily driven by ecosystem factors and natural mortality, increases in removals further add to the risk of stock decline into the Critical Zone.