NAFO Subdivision 3Ps Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) Stock Assessment in 2025

Abstract

Status The 2026 Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) is projected to be below the Limit Reference Point (LRP) with a greater than 99% probability. The stock remains in the Critical Zone. Trends The stock has been in the Critical Zone since 2000, with SSB near time series lows between 19 kt and 30 kt since 2009. SSB for 2026 is estimated at 26.7 kt (95 % Confidence Interval [CI] = 20.7 to 34.3), which is 40% (95% CI = 31 to 52 %) of the LRP (66 kt). • The stock has not achieved the growth expected under the Rebuilding Plan. Recruitment has been impaired since the early-1990s. Persistently low recruitment at a critically depleted stock size suggests the potential for stock growth will remain low. Natural mortality (M) increased considerably from the early-2000s to the 2010s, reaching a time series high in 2019, but has decreased since, reflecting improvements in cod condition. The average M estimate for ages 5–8 in 2025 is 0.31 (95% CI = 0.31 to 0.32), near time-series average levels (0.33). Fishing mortality (F) has declined since the early 2000s. Average F for ages 5–8 been low (range = 0.02 to 0.04) since 2020. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The ecosystem in 3Ps is undergoing structural changes associated with changing ocean climate. Ongoing oceanographic changes are important drivers of observed community shifts. The low level of cod biomass, its decline in dominance among piscivores, and declining weights at age indicate that cod productivity in 3Ps remains hindered. Cod productivity in 3Ps is expected to be negatively impacted as ocean warming continues. Stock Advice Following the management procedure, the maximum total allowable catch would be 1,465 t for 2026. However, as current stock size is likely overestimated there is heightened risk that removals at this level would exceed the maximum F defined in the Rebuilding Plan. Shifts in stock distribution and reduced growth have led to a major change in the understanding of this stock. As such, multi-year projections were not provided and a review of the Rebuilding Plan and the associated management procedure is warranted. Given the low status and productivity of the stock, removals from all sources should be at the lowest possible level until the stock clears the Critical Zone.