An ecological approach to predict areas with established populations of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec, Canada

Simple item page

Simple item page

Full item details

creativework.keywords - en

Ixodidae

Lyme disease

Regression analysis

Ticks

dc.contributor.author

Hammond-Collins, Karon

Tremblay, Mathieu

Milord, François

Baron, Geneviève

Bouchard, Catherine

Kotchi, Serge Olivier

Lambert, Louise

Leighton, Patrick

Ogden, Nicholas H.

Rees, Erin E.

dc.date.accessioned

2023-12-22T22:15:29Z

dc.date.available

2023-12-22T22:15:29Z

dc.date.issued

2022-09-15

dc.description.abstract - en

Public health management of Lyme disease (LD) is a dynamic challenge in Canada. Climate warming is driving the northward expansion of suitable habitat for the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Information about tick population establishment is used to inform the risk of LD but is challenged by sampling biases from surveillance data. Misclassifying areas as having no established tick population underestimates the LD risk classification. We used a logistic regression model at the municipal level to predict the probability of I. scapularis population establishment based on passive tick surveillance data during the period of 2010-2017 in southern Quebec. We tested for the effect of abiotic and biotic factors hypothesized to influence tick biology and ecology. Additional variables controlled for sampling biases in the passive surveillance data. In our final selected model, tick population establishment was positively associated with annual cumulative degree-days > 0°C, precipitation and deer density, and negatively associated with coniferous and mixed forest types. Sampling biases from passive tick surveillance were controlled for using municipal population size and public health instructions on tick submissions. The model performed well as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92, sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. Our model enables prediction of I. scapularis population establishment in areas which lack data from passive tick surveillance and may improve the sensitivity of LD risk categorization in these areas. A more sensitive system of LD risk classification is important for increasing awareness and use of protective measures employed against ticks, and decreasing the morbidity associated with LD.

dc.identifier.citation

Hammond-Collins, K., Tremblay, M., Milord, F., Baron, G., Bouchard, C., Kotchi, S. O., Lambert, L., Leighton, P., Ogden, N. H., & Rees, E. E. (2022). An ecological approach to predict areas with established populations of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec, Canada. Ticks and tick-borne diseases, 13(6), 102040. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ttbdis.2022.102040

dc.identifier.doi

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ttbdis.2022.102040

dc.identifier.issn

1877-959X

dc.identifier.pubmedID

36137391

dc.identifier.uri

https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/1368

dc.language.iso

en

dc.publisher

Elsevier

dc.rights - en

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

dc.rights - fr

Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

dc.rights.openaccesslevel - en

Gold

dc.rights.openaccesslevel - fr

Or

dc.rights.uri - en

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

dc.rights.uri - fr

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.fr

dc.subject - en

Health

dc.subject - fr

Santé

dc.subject.en - en

Health

dc.subject.fr - fr

Santé

dc.title - en

An ecological approach to predict areas with established populations of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec, Canada

dc.type - en

Article

dc.type - fr

Article

local.acceptedmanuscript.articlenum

102040

local.article.journalissue

6

local.article.journalvolume

13

local.peerreview - en

Yes

local.peerreview - fr

Oui

Download(s)

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1

Name: hammond-collins-ecological-approach-predict-ixodes-scapularis-quebec.pdf

Size: 2.7 MB

Format: PDF

Download file