Évaluation de la morue franche (Gadus morhua) dans le banc de Georges jusqu’en 2023

Abstract

Status The 2023 stock status is uncertain, as reference points for this stock have not been finalized. Trends The population spawning stock biomass (SSB) has decreased to a record low in 2023. The 2023 fishery catch is at a series low. Fishing mortality reached a series low in 2017, and has since increased slightly to 0.07 in 2023 (Figure 1). Size at age has been increasing from the low levels observed throughout the 2010s Recruits per SSB in the last three years have been the highest since 1978, within the context of record low spawning stock biomass. However, the higher recruitment has not resulted in an increase in the number of fish at ages 3+. Currently, factors other than fishing are limiting stock productivity of total Georges Bank cod. Numbers of older fish in the population continue to decline at a high rate, and natural mortality is inferred to be the primary cause. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The high rate of decline in numbers of adult Atlantic cod in this stock is attributed principally to natural mortality. The most commonly identified contributors to natural mortality for Atlantic Cod in this region are high temperature and predation. Both have undergone substantial changes in recent years, with bottom temperature anomalies registering record highs on Georges Bank and the grey seal population which has increased considerably over the past several decades. There is no indication that the trends in temperature or predation will reverse in the near future. Stock Advice Reference points, as well as reliable projections of the stock biomass under various fishing scenarios, cannot be provided until the completion of the assessment framework review. In the absence of reference points or reliable projections, interim advice is provided for the 2025 fishing year only. Given the trends in recent mortality rates estimated by the model, and in order to constrain risks to the population, catches of eastern Georges Bank Atlantic cod should not increase in the 2025 fishing year. Other Management Questions A method to split the total Georges Bank assessment model outputs to match the eastern Georges Bank management unit was requested by Fisheries Management. The peer reviewed method attributes 93% of the total Georges Bank advice in 2025 to the eastern Georges Bank management unit.