Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China

Jiang, Rong; He, Wentian; He, Liang; Yang, J. Y.; Qian, B.; Zhou, Wei; He, Ping

Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China

Simple item page

Full item details

creativework.keywords - en: Corn--Yields; Climatic changes; Adaptation (Physiology); Biomass; Decision Support Techniques; Nitrogen
creativework.keywords - fr: Maïs--Rendement; Climat--Changements; Adaptation (Physiologie); Biomasse; Prise de décision--Modèles mathématiques; Azote
dc.contributor.author: Jiang, Rong; He, Wentian; He, Liang; Yang, J. Y.; Qian, B.; Zhou, Wei; He, Ping
dc.date.accepted: 2020-12-15
dc.date.accessioned: 2025-01-24T20:48:34Z
dc.date.available: 2025-01-24T20:48:34Z
dc.date.issued: 2021-01-12
dc.date.submitted: 2020-05-19
dc.description.abstract - en: Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Northeast China is vulnerable to climate change. Thus, exploring future adaptation measures for maize is crucial to developing sustainable agriculture to ensure food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield and partial factor productivity of nitrogen (PFPN) and explore potential adaptation strategies in Northeast China. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was calibrated and validated using the measurements from nine maize experiments. DSSAT performed well in simulating maize yield, biomass and N uptake for both calibration and validation periods (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) < 10%, −5% < normalized average relative error (nARE) < 5% and index of agreement (d) > 0.8). Compared to the baseline (1980–2010), the average maize yields and PFPN would decrease by 7.6–32.1% and 3.6–14.0 kg N kg−1 respectively under future climate scenarios (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) without adaptation. Optimizing N application rate and timing, establishing rotation system with legumes, adjusting planting dates and breeding long-season cultivars could be effective adaptation strategies to climate change. This study demonstrated that optimizing agronomic crop management practices would assist to make policy development on mitigating the negative impacts of future climate change on maize production.
dc.identifier.citation: Jiang, R., He, W., He, L., Yang, J. Y., Qian, B., Zhou, W., & He, P. (2021). Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China. Scientific Reports, 11, Article 810. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79988-3
dc.identifier.doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79988-3
dc.identifier.issn: 2045-2322
dc.identifier.uri: https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/3354
dc.language.iso: en
dc.publisher - en: Nature Research
dc.rights - en: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.rights - fr: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.rights.uri - en: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.uri - fr: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.fr
dc.subject - en: Climate change; Crops
dc.subject - fr: Changement climatique; Cultures
dc.subject.en - en: Climate change; Crops
dc.subject.fr - fr: Changement climatique; Cultures
dc.title - en: Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China
dc.type - en: Article
dc.type - fr: Article
local.acceptedmanuscript.articlenum: 810
local.article.journaltitle - en: Scientific Reports
local.article.journalvolume: 11
local.pagination: 1-13
local.peerreview - en: Yes
local.peerreview - fr: Oui
local.requestdoi: No