Évaluation du stock de morue du Nord (Gadus morhua) dans les divisions 2J3KL de l'OPANO jusqu'en 2025

Abstract

Status The 2025 Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) is 2.0 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.2–3.3) times the Limit Reference Point (LRP). The probability that the stock is above the Critical Zone is greater than 99%. Retrospective analyses identified that the assessment model underestimates SSB and overestimates the LRP, leading to underestimation of relative stock size (SSB/LRP). While these patterns suggest issues with the accuracy of absolute estimates, they have not affected interpretation of stock trajectory or status. Trends SSB has changed little following a period of growth from 2010 to 2016. SSB in 2025 is estimated at 524 Kt (95% CI = 404–678 Kt). Estimated numbers of recruits (age 0) has changed little since 2015, corresponding to about 90% of pre-collapse (1954–90) levels. Natural mortality (M, ages 5+) has varied between 0.28 and 0.89 since 1995 (mean = 0.47) and in 2024 was 0.32 (95% CI = 0.17–0.59). Fishing mortality (F, ages 5+) has been below 0.05 since 2004 and in 2024 was 0.020 (95% CI = 0.016–0.026). Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The ongoing warm phase in ocean climate that started around 2020, along with recent improvements in zooplankton biomass levels, are currently favourable for groundfish productivity. However, long term impacts of increasing warming due to climate change are unknown. Total biomass level of the fish community shows improvements from the lows in the mid-late 2010s and is currently at or near post-collapse highs, but remains below pre-collapse levels. These increases are linked primarily to groundfish. Northern cod productivity is linked to Capelin availability. Capelin collapsed in 1991 and has yet to recover. Capelin biomass was at near post-collapse highs in 2024, but it is forecast to decline in 2025. Under these conditions, the scope for growth for Northern cod in the near future appears limited. Stock Advice SSB projections to 2028 with zero to two times total authorized removals for 2024 of 21,317 t show the probability of the stock declining into the Critical Zone increases from 15% with zero removals to 27% if removals are doubled. With total removal levels examined here (0 to 42,634 t) the risk of stock decline from 2025 to 2028 is moderate to moderately high, ranging from 56% to 71%. There is no level of removals that gives a high (≥75%) probability of stock growth. Under current ecosystem conditions and total removals the stock has not grown since 2017 and short-term prospects for stock growth are limited even under zero removals.