Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (CFAs 12, 12E, 12F, 19) Snow Crab (Chionoecetes opilio) stock assessment in 2023

Abstract

Status The 2023 southern Gulf of St. Lawrence snow crab commercial biomass index, estimated at 67,703 tonnes (t), is above the Upper Stock Reference (USR) with very high likelihood, placing the stock in the Healthy Zone of the Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. Trends Following a period of high levels from 2018 to 2022, the commercial biomass index decreased by 21% in 2023. Pre-recruits to the fishery decreased to below the time series (1997-2023) average in 2023. Female spawning stock indices have increased since 2006 and have remained at high levels in 2023. The population recruitment index was at the highest recorded level in 2021, but has decreased in 2023 to the time series average. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations There is continued evidence of warming conditions in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence that can impact snow crab population dynamics and distribution; and the mechanisms require further investigation. Stock Advice Based on the harvest decision rule, the 2023 commercial biomass index corresponds to a target exploitation rate of 38.59% and a catch option of 26,126 t for the 2024 southern Gulf of St. Lawrence fishery. A risk analysis indicates that this catch option would result in a very high likelihood that the commercial stock would remain in the Healthy Zone of the PA after the 2024 fishery.