Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (CFAs 12, 12E, 12F, 19) Snow Crab (Chionoecetes opilio) Stock Assessment in 2024

Abstract

Status The 2024 sGSL snow crab commercial stock biomass, estimated at 51,786 tonnes (t), is above the Upper Stock Reference (USR), placing the stock in the Healthy Zone of the Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. Trends Snow crab are known to go through cycles of abundance. After a period of high biomass from 2018 to 2022, the commercial biomass index decreased by 21% in 2023 and a further 24% in 2024. Pre-recruits (> 56 mm carapace width) have declined from high levels in 2019 to 2021 and are currently below average levels. Female spawning stock abundance remains high, although abundance of new mature females is low. A strong cohort resulted in the highest population recruitment index in 2021 and it has decreased below average levels in 2024. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The area of suitable snow crab habitat rose in 2024 from 2023 and is above the long-term average. However, water temperature in the core snow crab habitat is warmer than average in the sGSL, which may impact the snow crab population dynamics and distribution. Stock Advice Based on the harvest decision rule, the 2024 commercial biomass index corresponds to a target exploitation rate of 35.73% and a catch option of 18,503 t for the 2025 fishery. A risk analysis indicates that for this catch option, there is a moderate likelihood (40%) that the commercial stock would be below the upper stock reference and in the cautious zone of the PA after the 2025 fishery.