Future land-use change predictions using Dyna-Clue to support mosquito-borne disease risk assessment

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11394-4

Language of the publication
English
Date
2023-06-07
Type
Article
Author(s)
  • Rakotoarinia, Miarisoa Rindra
  • Seidou, Ousmane
  • Lapen, David R.
  • Leighton, Patrick A.
  • Ogden, Nicholas H.
  • Ludwig, Antoinette
Publisher
Springer

Abstract

Mosquitoes are known vectors for viral diseases in Canada, and their distribution is driven by climate and land use. Despite that, future land-use changes have not yet been used as a driver in mosquito distribution models in North America. In this paper, we developed land-use change projections designed to address mosquito-borne disease (MBD) prediction in a 38 761 km2 area of Eastern Ontario. The landscape in the study area is marked by urbanization and intensive agriculture and hosts a diverse mosquito community. The Dyna-CLUE model was used to project land-use for three time horizons (2030, 2050, and 2070) based on historical trends (from 2014 to 2020) for water, forest, agriculture, and urban land uses. Five scenarios were generated to reflect urbanization, agricultural expansion, and natural areas. An ensemble of thirty simulations per scenario was run to account for land-use conversion uncertainty. The simulation closest to the average map generated was selected to represent the scenario. A concordance matrix generated using map pair analysis showed a good agreement between the simulated 2020 maps and 2020 observed map. By 2050, the most significant changes are predicted to occur mainly in the southeastern region’s rural and forested areas. By 2070, high deforestation is expected in the central west. These results will be integrated into risk models predicting mosquito distribution to study the possibility of humans’ increased exposure risk to MBDs.

Subject

  • Health

Keywords

  • Land-use change,
  • Dyna-CLUE,
  • Scenario,
  • Mosquitos,
  • Eastern Ontario

Rights

Peer review

Yes

Identifiers

ISSN
1573-2959

Article

Journal title
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Journal volume
195
Journal issue
7
Accepted date
2023-05

Citation(s)

Rakotoarinia, M.R., Seidou, O., Lapen, D.R. et al. Future land-use change predictions using Dyna-Clue to support mosquito-borne disease risk assessment. Environ Monit Assess 195, 815 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11394-4

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Communicable diseases

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