Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets

Thumbnail image

Download files

Language of the publication
English
Date
2020-06-01
Type
Accepted manuscript
Author(s)
  • Sigmond, Michael
  • Fyfe, John C.
  • Saenko, Oleg A.
  • Swart, Neil C.
Publisher
Springer Nature

Abstract

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken under increasing GHGs, it is unclear how it would respond to stabilization of global warming of 1.5 or 2.0 °C, the Paris Agreement temperature targets, or 3.0 °C, the expected warming by 2100 under current emission reduction policies. On the basis of stabilized warming simulations with two Earth System Models, we find that, after temperature stabilization, the AMOC declines for 5–10 years followed by a 150-year recovery to a level that is approximately independent of the considered stabilization scenario. The AMOC recovery has important implications for North Atlantic steric sea-level rise, which by 2600 is simulated to be 25–31% less than the global mean, and for North Atlantic surface temperatures, which continue to increase despite global mean surface temperature stabilization. These results show that substantial ongoing climate trends are likely to occur after global mean temperature has stabilized.

Description

This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0786-0

Subject

  • Nature and environment,
  • Science and technology

Pagination

19 pages

Peer review

Yes

Open access level

Green

Identifiers

ISSN
1758-6798
1758-678X

Article

Journal title
Nature Climate Change
Journal volume
10
Accepted date
2020-04-22
Submitted date
2019-12-30

Download(s)

URI

Collection(s)

Water

Full item page

Full item page

Page details

Date modified: