Assessing transmission risks and control strategy for monkeypox as an emerging zoonosis in a metropolitan area

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28137

Language of the publication
English
Date
2023-01
Type
Article
Author(s)
  • Yuan, Pei
  • Tan, Yi
  • Yang, Liu
  • Aruffo, Elena
  • Ogden, Nicholas H.
  • Bélair, Jacques
  • Heffernan, Jane
  • Arino, Julien
  • Watmough, James
  • Carabin, Hélène
  • Zhu, Huaiping
Publisher
Journal of Medical Virology

Abstract

To model the spread of monkeypox (MPX) in a metropolitan area for assessing the risk of possible outbreaks, and identifying essential public health measures to contain the virus spread. The animal reservoir is the key element in the modeling of zoonotic disease. Using a One Health approach, we model the spread of the MPX virus in humans considering potential animal hosts such as rodents (e.g., rats, mice, squirrels, chipmunks, etc.) and emphasize their role and transmission of the virus in a high-risk group, including gay and bisexual men-who-have-sex-with-men (gbMSM). From model and sensitivity analysis, we identify key public health factors and present scenarios under different transmission assumptions. We find that the MPX virus may spill over from gbMSM high-risk groups to broader populations if the efficiency of transmission increases in the higher-risk group. However, the risk of outbreak can be greatly reduced if at least 65% of symptomatic cases can be isolated and their contacts traced and quarantined. In addition, infections in an animal reservoir will exacerbate MPX transmission risk in the human population. Regions or communities with a higher proportion of gbMSM individuals need greater public health attention. Tracing and quarantine (or "effective quarantine" by postexposure vaccination) of contacts with MPX cases in high-risk groups would have a significant effect on controlling the spreading. Also, monitoring for animal infections would be prudent.

Subject

  • Health

Keywords

  • compartment models,
  • monkeypox,
  • risk assessment,
  • zoonosis disease

Rights

Peer review

Yes

Identifiers

PubMed ID
36089815
ISSN
1096-9071

Article

Journal title
Journal of Medical Virology
Journal volume
95
Journal issue
1

Citation(s)

Yuan P, Tan Y, Yang L, Aruffo E, Ogden NH, Bélair J, Heffernan J, Arino J, Watmough J, Carabin H, Zhu H. Assessing transmission risks and control strategy for monkeypox as an emerging zoonosis in a metropolitan area. J Med Virol. 2023 Jan;95(1):e28137. doi: 10.1002/jmv.28137. Epub 2022 Sep 23. PMID: 36089815.

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Collection(s)

Public health surveillance

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