Assessment of the northern contingent of Atlantic Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in 2020

Abstract

The status of the northern contingent of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Northwest Atlantic is assessed every two years using an age-structured stock assessment model. This document presents the background information, data, and methods used to calculate the main stock status indicators for mackerel which form the basis of advice given to the Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Branch of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) in the setting of Total Allowable Catch (TAC). The present stock assessment took place on the 25-26 of February and March 3rd of 2021 and provides advice for the 2021-2022 fishing seasons. The main results of this assessment indicated that in 2020, the spawning stock biomass (SSB) of mackerel was estimated to be at an all-time low and in the Critical Zone, as per DFO’s Precautionary Approach (PA), since 2011. Recruitment of age 1 fish was estimated to be near record lows in recent years and the age structure of the stock was severely truncated. The fishing mortality rate (F) was also above the reference point. Short-term projections indicated that the probability of the SSB leaving the Critical Zone by 2023 varied from 29%-37% (TAC = 10 000 t) to 51%- 58% (TAC = 0 t) depending on the assumptions of future recruitment.