Uncertainty in the winter tropospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss : the role of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Internal Variability

Sun, Lantao; Deser, Clara; Simpson, Isla; Sigmond, Michael

doi:https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/2554

Uncertainty in the winter tropospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss : the role of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Internal Variability

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dc.contributor.author: Sun, Lantao; Deser, Clara; Simpson, Isla; Sigmond, Michael
dc.date.accepted: 2021-12-21
dc.date.accessioned: 2024-06-06T19:04:30Z
dc.date.available: 2024-06-06T19:04:30Z
dc.date.issued: 2022-04-29
dc.date.submitted: 2021-07-16
dc.description.abstract - en: Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the past four decades and climate models project a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean by the middle of this century, with attendant consequences for regional climate. However, modeling studies lack consensus on how the large-scale atmospheric circulation will respond to Arctic sea ice loss. In this study, the authors conduct a series of 200-member ensemble experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) to isolate the atmospheric response to past and future sea ice loss following the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) protocol. They find that the stratospheric polar vortex response is small compared to internal variability, which in turn influences the signal-to-noise ratio of the wintertime tropospheric circulation response to ice loss. In particular, a strong (weak) stratospheric polar vortex induces a positive (negative) tropospheric northern annular mode (and North Atlantic Oscillation), obscuring the forced component of the tropospheric response, even in 100-member averages. Stratospheric internal variability is closely tied to upward wave propagation from the troposphere and can be explained by linear wave interference between the anomalous and climatological planetary waves. Implications for the detection of recent observed trends and model realism are also presented. These results highlight the inherent uncertainty of the large-scale tropospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss arising from stratospheric internal variability.
dc.description.fosrcfull - en: Copyright 2022 American Meteorological Society (AMS). For permission to reuse any portion of this Work, please contact <a href = "mailto: permissions@ametsoc.org">permissions@ametsoc.org</a>. Any use of material in this Work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 U.S. Code § 107) or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC § 108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (<a href="https://www.copyright.com">https://www.copyright.com</a>). Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (<a href="https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy">https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy</a>)
dc.description.fosrcfull-fosrctranslation - en: Droit d'auteur 2022 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Pour obtenir l'autorisation de réutiliser toute partie de cette œuvre, veuillez contacter <a href = "mailto: permissions@ametsoc.org">permissions@ametsoc.org</a>. Toute utilisation d'un élément de cette œuvre considérée comme une "utilisation équitable" par l'article 107 de la loi américaine sur le droit d'auteur (U.S. Copyright Act, 17 U.S. Code § 107) ou satisfaisant aux conditions énoncées à l'article 108 de la loi américaine sur le droit d'auteur (U.S. Copyright Act, 17 U.S. Code § 108) ne requiert pas l'autorisation de l'AMS. La republication, la reproduction systématique, l'affichage sous forme électronique, par exemple sur un site web ou dans une base de données interrogeable, ou toute autre utilisation de ce matériel, à l'exception de ce qui est exempté par la déclaration ci-dessus, nécessite une autorisation écrite ou une licence de la part de l'AMS. Toutes les revues et monographies de l'AMS sont enregistrées auprès du Copyright Clearance Center (<a href="https://www.copyright.com">https://www.copyright.com</a>). Des détails supplémentaires sont prévu dans la déclaration de politique de droit d'auteur de l'AMS, disponible sur le site web de l'AMS (<a href="https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy">https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy</a>)
dc.identifier.doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0543.1
dc.identifier.issn: 0894-8755; 1520-0442
dc.identifier.uri: https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/2554
dc.language.iso: en
dc.publisher: American Meteorological Society
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - en: Green
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - fr: Vert
dc.subject - en: Nature and environment; Science and technology; Climate
dc.subject - fr: Nature et environnement; Sciences et technologie; Climat
dc.subject.en - en: Nature and environment; Science and technology; Climate
dc.subject.fr - fr: Nature et environnement; Sciences et technologie; Climat
dc.title - en: Uncertainty in the winter tropospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss : the role of Stratospheric Polar Vortex Internal Variability
dc.type - en: Article
dc.type - fr: Article
local.article.journalissue: 10
local.article.journaltitle: Journal of Climate
local.article.journalvolume: 35
local.pagination: 3109–3130
local.peerreview - en: Yes
local.peerreview - fr: Oui
local.requestdoi: No

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