Recovery potential modelling of Northern Madtom (Noturus stigmosus) in Canada

Abstract

The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) has assessed Northern Madtom (Noturus stigmosus) in Canada as Endangered. Population modelling is presented to assess the impacts of harm and determine abundance and habitat recovery targets in support of a Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA). This analysis demonstrated that Northern Madtom was most sensitive to perturbations to juvenile survival. Population viability analysis was used to identify potential recovery targets. Demographic sustainability (i.e., a self-sustaining population over the long term) can be achieved with an adult and juvenile population size of ~97,000 (CI: 29,000 – 230,000) at a 99% probability of persistence over 100 years. Such a population would require ~1,700 hectares in the Detroit River, ~1,900 ha in the St. Clair River and ~1,600 ha in the Thames River.