Towards an improved methodology for modelling climate change impacts on cropping systems in cool climates

Smith, Ward; Grant, Brian; Qi, Zhiming; He, Wentian; Qian, Budong; Jing, Qi; VanderZaag, Andrew; Drury, Craig F.; St. Luce, Mervin; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

doi:https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/238

Towards an improved methodology for modelling climate change impacts on cropping systems in cool climates

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creativework.keywords - en: climate change; DNDC; process-based modelling; cropping systems; nitrogen losses; soil organic carbon; decomposition; denitrification
creativework.keywords - fr: climat--changements; DNDC; modélisation basée sur les processus; systèmes de culture; pertes d'azote; carbone organique du sol; décomposition; dénitrification
dc.contributor.author: Smith, Ward; Grant, Brian; Qi, Zhiming; He, Wentian; Qian, Budong; Jing, Qi; VanderZaag, Andrew; Drury, Craig F.; St. Luce, Mervin; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia
dc.date.accessioned: 2023-04-21T12:21:53Z
dc.date.available: 2023-04-21T12:21:53Z
dc.date.issued: 2020-04-22
dc.description.abstract - en: Assessment of the impact of climate change on agricultural sustainability requires a robust full system estimation of the interdependent soil-plant-atmospheric processes coupled with dynamic farm management. The simplification or exclusion of major feedback mechanisms in modelling approaches can significantly affect model outcomes. Using a biogeochemical model, DNDCv.CAN, at three case-study locations in Canada, we quantified the impact of using commonly employed simplified modelling approaches on model estimates of crop yields, soil organic carbon (SOC) change and nitrogen (N) losses across 4 time periods (1981–2010, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100). These approaches included using climate with only temperature and precipitation data, annual re-initialization of soil status, fixed fertilizer application rates, and fixed planting dates. These simplified approaches were compared to a more comprehensive reference approach that used detailed climate drivers, dynamic planting dates, dynamic fertilizer rates, and had a continuous estimation of SOC, N and water budgets. Alternative cultivars and rotational impacts were also investigated. At the semi-arid location, the fixed fertilizer, fixed planting date, and soil re-initialization approaches reduced spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield estimates by 40%, 25%, and 29%, respectively, in the 2071–2100 period relative to the comprehensive reference approach. At both sub-humid locations, the re-initialization of soil status significantly altered SOC levels, N leaching and N runoff in all three time periods from 2011 to 2100. At all locations, SOC levels were impacted when using simplified approaches relative to the reference approach, except for the fixed fertilizer approach at the sub-humid locations. Results indicate that simplified approaches often lack the necessary characterization of the feedbacks between climate, soil, crop and management that are critical for accurately assessing crop system behavior under future climate. We recommend that modellers improve their capabilities of simulating expected changes in agronomy over time and employ tools that consider robust soil-plant-atmospheric processes.
dc.description.plainlanguage - en: Assessment of the impact of climate change on cropping systems requires a robust model which can simulate soil, plant, and atmospheric processes. Also, it must consider a wide range of farm management. Simple modelling approaches can adversely affect predictions. Using a process-based model at three case-study locations in Canada, we quantified the impact of using simplified modelling approaches on model estimates of crop yields, soil organic carbon change and nitrogen losses under climate change from current until 2100. These approaches included using climate with only temperature and precipitation data, annual re-initialization of soil status, fixed fertilizer application rates, and fixed planting dates. These simplified approaches were compared to a more comprehensive reference approach that used detailed climate drivers, dynamic planting dates, dynamic fertilizer rates, and had a continuous estimation of soil organic carbon, N and water budgets. Alternative cultivars and rotational impacts were also investigated. At the semi-arid location, the fixed fertilizer, fixed planting date, and soil re-initialization approach reduced spring wheat yield estimates by 40%, 25%, and 29%, respectively, in the 2071-2100 period relative to the comprehensive reference approach. At both wet locations in eastern Canada, the continuous stimulation of soil carbon and nitrogen cycling was required to effectively estimate soil carbon levels, N leaching and N runoff. At all locations, soil carbon levels were impacted when using simplified approaches relative to the reference approach, except for the fixed fertilizer approach at the wet locations. Results indicate that simplified approaches often lack the necessary characterization of the feedbacks between climate, soil, crop and management that are critical for accurately assessing crop system behaviour under future climate. We recommend that modellers improve their capabilities of simulating expected changes in agronomy over time and employ tools that consider robust soil-plant-atmospheric processes.
dc.description.plainlanguage - fr: L’évaluation des effets des changements climatiques sur les systèmes de culture nécessite un modèle robuste qui puisse simuler les processus liés au sol, aux plantes et à l’atmosphère. De plus, elle doit tenir compte d’un vaste éventail de méthodes de gestion agricole. Les approches de modélisation simples peuvent avoir un effet défavorable sur les prédictions. À l’aide d’un modèle fondé sur les processus dans trois localités d’étude de cas au Canada, nous avons quantifié l'incidence de l’utilisation d’approches de modélisation simplifiées sur les estimations du modèle de rendement des cultures, la variation du carbone organique du sol et les pertes d’azote sous l’effet des changements climatiques d’aujourd’hui jusqu’en 2100. Ces approches comprenaient l’utilisation de données climatiques sur la température et les précipitations uniquement, une réinitialisation annuelle de l’état du sol, des taux d’application d’engrais fixes et des dates d’ensemencement fixes. Ces approches simplifiées ont été comparées à une approche de référence plus complète qui utilisait des facteurs climatiques détaillés, des dates d’ensemencement dynamiques, des taux de fertilisation dynamiques et une estimation continue du carbone organique du sol, du N et des bilans hydriques. D’autres cultivars et les effets de la rotation ont également été étudiés. Dans la région semi-aride, les méthodes de taux d'application d’engrais fixes, de date d’ensemencement fixe et de réinitialisation du sol ont réduit les estimations de rendement du blé de printemps de 40 %, 25 % et 29 %, respectivement, au cours de la période de 2071 à 2100 par rapport à l'approche de référence complète. Dans les deux localités humides de l’est du Canada, la stimulation continue du cycle du carbone et de l’azote du sol était nécessaire pour estimer efficacement les concentrations de carbone du sol, le lessivage de N et le ruissellement de N. À tous les endroits, les concentrations de carbone du sol ont été touchés par l’utilisation d’approches simplifiées par rapport à l’approche de référence, sauf pour l’approche de taux d'application d'engrais fixes dans les endroits humides. Les résultats indiquent que les approches simplifiées manquent souvent la caractérisation nécessaire des rétroactions entre le climat, le sol, les cultures et la gestion, lesquelles sont essentielles pour évaluer avec exactitude le comportement des systèmes de culture dans des conditions climatiques futures. Nous recommandons aux modélisateurs d’améliorer leur capacité de simuler les changements agronomiques prévus au fil du temps et d’utiliser des outils qui tiennent compte de processus robustes sol-végétaux-atmosphère.
dc.identifier.citation: Smith, W., Grant, B., Qi, Z., He, W., Qian, B., Jing, Q., VanderZaag, A., Drury, C. F., St. Luce, M., & Wagner-Riddle, C. (2020). Towards an improved methodology for modelling climate change impacts on cropping systems in cool climates. Science of the Total Environment, 728. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138845
dc.identifier.doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138845
dc.identifier.issn: 1879-1026
dc.identifier.uri: https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/238
dc.language.iso: en
dc.publisher: Elsevier
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - en: Green
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - fr: Vert
dc.subject - en: Agriculture
dc.subject - fr: Agriculture
dc.subject.en - en: Agriculture
dc.subject.fr - fr: Agriculture
dc.title - en: Towards an improved methodology for modelling climate change impacts on cropping systems in cool climates
dc.title.fosrctranslation - fr: Towards an improved methodology for modelling climate change impacts on cropping systems in cool climates
dc.type - en: Article
dc.type - fr: Article
local.article.journaltitle: Science of the Total Environment
local.article.journalvolume: 728
local.peerreview - en: Yes
local.peerreview - fr: Oui

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