Northern (2J3KL) Atlantic cod assessment framework

Abstract

The assessment model for Atlantic Cod in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions (Div.) 2J3KL was extended back to 1954 (previously starting in 1983) through the inclusion of additional tagging and landings data. This extended model has refined our understanding of past trends in the stock. Juvenile survey data from inshore monitoring programs were incorporated into the model which allowed for the implementation of a stock-recruitment relationship. New and prior research demonstrated that Capelin affect the dynamics of this cod stock. A Capelin index was included in the updated assessment model. The effects of Harp Seals on cod in Div. 2J3KL were investigated. However, a Harp Seal index could not be included in the current assessment model due to difficulty quantifying size-specific impacts and separating seal impacts from environmental effects. The Limit Reference Point (LRP) was updated following the significant model revisions and extension of the time series, and was set at 40% BMSY (biomass at maximum sustainable yield) in accordance with Precautionary Approach (PA) guidelines. Under this new framework, the spawning stock biomass was estimated at 1.16 times the LRP in 2021, with a 29% probability of being below the LRP. Current stock status was not updated in this meeting.