Strengthened impact of boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation on ENSO development in warming climate

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dc.contributor.author
Chen, Shangfeng
Chen, Wen
Xie, Shang
Yu, Bin
Wu, Renguang
Wang, Zhibiao
Lan, Xiaoqing
Graf, Hans-F
dc.date.accepted
2024-03-04
dc.date.accessioned
2024-04-09T18:51:52Z
dc.date.available
2024-04-09T18:51:52Z
dc.date.issued
2024-03-12
dc.date.submitted
2023-11-30
dc.description.abstract - en
The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), an important mode of atmospheric variability, is a crucial trigger for the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the seasonal footprinting mechanism. How the NPO effect on ENSO changes in response to greenhouse warming remains unclear, however. Here, using climate model simulations under high-emission scenarios, we show that greenhouse warming leads to an enhanced influence of NPO on ENSO as is manifested by enhanced responses of winter sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation and wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific to the preceding winter NPO. The strengthened NPO impact is also reflected in an increased frequency of NPO events that are followed by ENSO events. Warmer background SST enhances the wind-evaporation-SST feedback over the subtropical North Pacific due to a nonlinear SST-evaporation relationship. This strengthens the NPO-generated surface zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial western-central Pacific, which trigger ENSO. Increased impact of winter NPO on ENSO could enable prediction of interannual variability at longer leads.
dc.identifier.doi
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00615-3
dc.identifier.issn
2397-3722
dc.identifier.uri
https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/2254
dc.language.iso
en
dc.publisher
Springer Nature
dc.rights - en
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.rights - fr
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - en
Gold
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - fr
Or
dc.rights.uri - en
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.uri - fr
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.fr
dc.subject - en
Nature and environment
Science and technology
Climate
dc.subject - fr
Nature et environnement
Sciences et technologie
Climat
dc.subject.en - en
Nature and environment
Science and technology
Climate
dc.subject.fr - fr
Nature et environnement
Sciences et technologie
Climat
dc.title - en
Strengthened impact of boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation on ENSO development in warming climate
dc.type - en
Article
dc.type - fr
Article
local.acceptedmanuscript.articlenum
69
local.article.journaltitle
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
local.article.journalvolume
7
local.pagination
11 pages
local.peerreview - en
Yes
local.peerreview - fr
Oui
local.requestdoi
No
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