Crevette nordique (Pandalus borealis) dans les régions d'évaluation du stock du nord et du sud en 2024

Abstract

Status Stock statuses differ from those previously reported at the scale of Shrimp Fishing Areas, resulting from revised stock assessment areas that better reflect the biology of the species and the implementation of a stock assessment model. North stock assessment region (NSAR): In 2024, the female SSB for Northern Shrimp in the NSAR was above the LRP (greater than 99% probability) and above the proposed USR (greater than 99% probability). If the proposed USR were adopted, this would place the stock in the Healthy Zone of the PA Framework. South stock assessment region (SSAR): In 2024, the female SSB for Northern Shrimp in the SSAR was above the LRP (greater than 99% probability) and above the proposed USR (greater than 98% probability). If the proposed USR were adopted, this would place the stock in the Healthy Zone of the PA Framework. Trends NSAR: SSB derived from the stock assessment model increased by 56% in 2024 relative to the 2023 value, and remained below the time-series mean (1996–2023). The FB spatiotemporal survey index in 2024 declined by 19.7% relative to the 2023 value and remained below the time-series mean (1996–2023). SSAR: SSB derived from the stock assessment model increased by 2.2% in 2024 relative to the 2023 value which was the lowest in the time series, and remained below the time-series mean (1996–2023). The FB spatiotemporal survey index in 2024 declined by 20.8% relative to the 2023 value and reached a time-series low (1996–2023). Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations In the northern portion of the NSAR, summer ocean bottom temperatures for 2024 were average to slightly above average. In the southern portion of the NSAR and in the SSAR, the warm phase in ocean climate that started around 2020 continues, with record high sea surface temperature in 2024. The potential predator index has increased in both the NSAR and SSAR. The total biomass of the fish and shellfish community in the SSAR is at the highest levels since the 1990s but remains below their pre-ecosystem collapse levels (late 1980s). These increases are driven by groundfish, with the community having returned to a groundfish dominated structure. Based on information from cod diets, the current shrimp biomass in the core of the SSAR (2J3KL) is estimated to be around the level of the pre-ecosystem collapse period. Stock Advice In 2025, ERI values were based on the newly adopted two-assessment region framework and FB indices were calculated using spatiotemporal modeling. These values are not directly comparable to previous estimates. NSAR: The preliminary ERI was 15.7% in 2024/2025. If the entire 2024/2025 aggregated TACs for the SFAs of this region are taken, the ERI will be 21.2%. SSAR: The preliminary ERI was 6.2% in 2024/2025. If the entire 2024/2025 aggregated TACs for the SFAs of this region are taken, the ERI will be 9.1%.