Review of rebuilding plan simulations for Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) subdivision 3Ps Atlantic cod

Abstract

Atlantic cod Gadus morhua in NAFO Subdivision 3Ps remains well within the critical zone of Canada's Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework, and was at 48% of the Limit Reference Point (LRP) in 2021. Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) has a legal requirement to develop a Rebuilding Plan for this stock. The 3Ps Atlantic cod stock is co-managed by Canada and France. ”MSE-lite” is a framework that uses closed-loop simulations of the assessment model to project the stock trajectory under a range of recruitment (R) and natural mortality (M) scenarios, and with the application of various management procedures. This framework is considered to be scientifically sound, and is adequate for assessing the rebuilding potential of Atlantic Cod in 3Ps in support of the development of a Rebuilding Plan for this stock. Scenarios of R and M tested within MSE-lite all fall within the conditions previously experienced by the stock. In a changing ocean climate these conditions may not adequately capture future conditions, and biological evidence suggests M is more likely to increase than decrease. The prevailing conditions defined for R and M are appropriate for calculating minimum time to rebuild to the proposed target in the absence of fishing (Tmin). The stock is expected to reach the proposed rebuilding target (above the LRP with a 75% probability) in 2036.