Assessment of the Northern Contingent of Atlantic Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in 2022

Abstract

This document presents the data and methods used to assess the stock status of the northern contingent of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Northwest Atlantic. The presented and reviewed stock status indicators (February 20-22, 2023) were estimated with an age structured stock assessment model that was fitted to landings data, landings-at-age and an egg survey index. The estimated 2022 spawning stock biomass (SSB) was at 42% of the Limit Reference Point, defined as 40% of SSB40%, placing the stock in the Critical zone of the Precautionary Approach Framework. The stock has been in or near the Critical zone since 2011. Recent average recruitment (2012-2022) has been low relative to the previous period (1969-2011) and the age structure of the stock remained truncated. Short-term projections indicated that the probability of the SSB leaving the Critical zone by 2025 varied around 37.5% for a total allowable catch (TAC) of 0 t and around 16% for a TAC of 8,000 t, given continued U.S. fishing and recreational fishing in Canada.