Spatiotemporal patterns of low and highly pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence in murres in Canada from 2007 to 2022—a case study for wildlife viral monitoring

Abstract

Migratory seabirds move across ocean basins and are one of the primary reservoirs of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV). This includes the millions of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and common murres (Uria aalge) that are distributed across northern hemisphere oceans. In response to increasingly frequent detections of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in Europe in 2020–2021, avian influenza virus (AIV) monitoring in wildlife has increased. We compiled data from murres tested for AIV in Canada between 2007 and 2022 to quantify spatiotemporal variation in the prevalence of LPAIV and HPAIV in these birds. No HPAIV was detected in murres prior to 2022, but HPAIV was present in 46% of both live/harvested and found dead murres in the northwestern Atlantic in 2022 with prevalence peaking at 63% among live birds in the summer. In the eastern Canadian Arctic, HPAIV prevalence in 2022 was <1% while LPAIV prevalence was 21%, which was significantly higher than previous sampling years. Power analyses suggest approximately 100 samples from breeding murres should be collected annually per colony or region to detect moderate changes in HPAIV prevalence. These analyses inform robust monitoring of viruses in wildlife, with implications for conservation, harvest management, and public health.