Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) Stock Assessment in 2024

Abstract

Status The spawning stock biomass (SSB) of the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic cod, estimated in 2024 at 15,793 t, is below the limit reference point (LRP) with a very high probability, placing this stock in the critical zone of the Precautionary Approach (PA) since 1990. Trends Since 2017, SSB followed a downward trend, reaching in 2024 the lowest value in the series starting in 1973. Recruitment for cohorts born in 2019 to 2022 was below the average of the recent series. This contrasts with the recruitment of the 2018 cohort, which was estimated to be the largest since 1990. However, a high mortality rate in this cohort has considerably reduced its importance. Natural mortality (M) followed an increasing trend since 2005, while fishing mortality (F) is currently very low and negligible compared to natural mortality. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations Links between feeding intensity, condition and total mortality suggest that recent bottom-up effects of the environment may be important drivers of the low stock productivity. Stock Advice The estimated SSB in 2024 is 22% of the PA limit reference point (LRP). According to the harvest control rule in the rebuilding plan, annual removals from all sources should not exceed 500 t. SSB projections based on reported catch scenarios ranging from 0 to 1,000 t show very low probabilities of SSB growth over the next four years. These results can be explained principally by high recent natural mortality, along with low recruitment.