Capelin in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Divisions 4RST) in 2022 and 2023

Abstract

The 2022 and 2023 4RST Capelin fishing seasons had significant reductions in landings compared to the previous four years, with less than half of the Total Allowable Catch being landed; primarily by the Tuck seine fleet off the West coast of Newfoundland. The fishery was also delayed relative to historical patterns. Commercial biological data, including length compositions, mean lengths, relative conditions, sex ratios, and mean gonadosomatic indices, remained consistent with the last decade, showing no apparent temporal trends that could indicate fishery-induced changes or environmental shifts. Besides data from the commercial fishery, the assessment relies upon relative abundance indices derived from bottom trawl surveys in the southern and northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL and nGSL). While mature Capelin biomass estimates from these surveys had significant interannual variability and large confidence intervals, the overall trends revealed a decline in the nGSL index since 2017, contrasted by a marked increase in the sGSL index in 2023. The fishing mortality index, derived from landings relative to mature biomass was highly variable and was notably low in 2022 and 2023. Despite uncertainties in the time-series data, evidence suggests that landings are substantially lower than the consumption rates of mature Capelin by predators, indicating that fishing mortality is comparatively lower than natural mortality. The current stock status of 4RST Capelin remains uncertain due to the absence of a limit reference point, yet the variability in mature biomass and the low fishing mortality suggest that recent harvest levels are unlikely to jeopardize the stock in the near future.