A scoping review of importation and predictive models related to vector-borne diseases, pathogens, reservoirs, or vectors (1999–2016)

Abstract

BACKGROUND As globalization and climate change progress, the expansion and introduction of vectorborne diseases (VBD) from endemic regions to non-endemic regions is expected to occur. Mathematical and statistical models can be useful in predicting when and where these changes in distribution may happen. Our objective was to conduct a scoping review to identify and characterize predictive and importation models related to vector-borne diseases that exist in the global literature. METHODS A literature search was conducted to identify publications published between 1999 and 2016 from five scientific databases using relevant keywords. All publications had to be in English or French, and include a predictive or importation model on VBDs, pathogens, reservoirs and/or vectors. Relevance screening and data characterization were performed by two reviewers using pretested forms. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS The search initially identified 19 710 unique articles, reports, and conference abstracts. This was reduced to 428 relevant documents after relevance screening and data charting. About half of the models used mathematical techniques, and the remainder were statistical. Most of the models were predictive (87%), rather than importation (5%). The most commonly investigated diseases were malaria and dengue fever. Around 12% of the publications did not report all the parameters used in their model. Only 29% of the models incorporated the impacts of climate change. CONCLUSIONS A wide variety of mathematical and statistical models on vector-borne diseases exist. Researchers creating their own mathematical and/or statistical models may be able to use this scoping review to be informed about the diseases and/or regions, parameters, model types, and methodologies used in published models.