Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, NAFO division 4T-4VN (November-April), Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock assessment to 2023

Abstract

Status Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) of southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic Cod has been in the Critical Zone of the Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework for several decades. The SSB of Atlantic Cod in 2023 is 12 kilotons (kt) and has a very high probability (100%) of still being in the Critical Zone. Trends SSB varied between 100 and 370 kt in the early 1980s, but then decreased until the mid 1990s. Following a slightly increasing trend between the mid-1990s to the early 2000s, SSB declined until 2020 and has remained at low levels without trend. Natural mortality of older age classes (5+) has been increasing steadily since the mid 1980s. Recruitment steadily declined between the mid-1980s and 2016, showed a positive trend between 2016 and 2020, and was followed by low recruitment in the most recent years. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations Elevated natural mortality of older individuals is most likely caused by predation from grey seals. Although there have been increasing recruitment levels in recent years, under current conditions of high natural mortality, the probability that SSB will increase over the Lower Reference Point by 2028 is 0%, even in the absence of fishery removals. Projected SSB over the next five years continues to decline with a high probability of the SSB decreasing below 1 kt in the next 50 years.