Assessment of Newfoundland and Labrador (Divisions 2HJ3KLNOP4R) Snow Crab in 2023

Abstract

Assessment Divisions (ADs) 3L Inshore and 3LNO Offshore were combined into one AD (i.e., AD 3LNO) based on revised models for trap and trawl surveys. Conversion factors to calibrate DFO trawl survey catches for Snow Crab between new and outgoing vessels were estimated and applied across the survey area. In AD 3Ps, conversion factors could not be estimated for the Canadian Coast Guard Ship (CCGS) Alfred Needler; however, a different modelling approach showed comparability between vessels for exploitable and pre-recruit biomass. The overall exploitable biomass index has increased from historic lows in 2016–18. In 2023, the exploitable biomass index remained near the same level as 2022. Fishery Exploitation Rate Indices (ERIs) were moderate to low in most ADs in recent years. Status quo removals would maintain the moderate exploitation rates in most ADs in 2024. However, AD 3K has a projected exploitation rate of 42%. With status quo removals in 2024, all ADs are projected to be in the Healthy Zone of the Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework, except 2HJ, which is projected to be in the Cautious Zone. Recent and ongoing data deficiencies result in the exclusion of AD 4R3Pn from the PA Framework. The estimated exploitation rate index remains high in this AD. Pre-recruit and small crab indicators, as well as model predictions of exploitable biomass based on climate variables, indicate that resource growth may be limited in the short-term. The warming phase in the Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) ocean climate that started around 2018 continued in 2023. This warmer climate corresponded with improved conditions observed at the lower trophic levels, including increased concentrations of chlorophyll-a, earlier spring blooms, and increased zooplankton abundance and biomass. The NL bioregion continues to experience overall low productivity conditions, with total biomass measured in the DFO research vessel survey well below pre-collapse levels. The marine community has returned to a finfish dominated structure. Ecosystem trends in 2019– 23 (e.g., biomass trends and stomach content weights) indicate improvements from the lows in the late-2010s, but overall biomass has yet to reach the early-2010s level. In recent years, the predation mortality index has been higher in 2J3K than 3LNO and 3Ps.