Analytical assessment for the status of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) stock in NAFO Subdivision 3Ps in 2021

Abstract

The status of the cod stock in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps was assessed during a Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Regional Peer Review Process meeting held November 8–12, 2021. An integrated state space model was used to assess the status of the stock and estimate fishing mortality. This model incorporates catch (1959–2020), time varying natural mortality informed by trends in cod condition, and includes abundance indices from bottom trawl surveys conducted by Canada (1983–2005, 2007–19, 2021), France (1978–91), and industry (GEAC, 1998–2005), and standardized catch rate indices from the Sentinel gillnet and line-trawl surveys (1995–2020). Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) at January 1, 2021, was estimated to be 31.5 kt (25.3 kt– 39.5 kt). The stock is in the Critical Zone (48% of Blim [38–60%]) as defined by the DFO Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. The probability of being below Blim is >99.9%. The estimated fishing mortality rate (ages 5–8) has generally declined from 0.16 in 2015 to 0.03 in 2021. Natural mortality was estimated to be 0.34 (ages 5–8) in 2021, a decline from higher values in recent years. Recruitment (age 2) estimates have been below the long term average since the mid-1990s. Under multiple catch projection scenarios, there is a probability >99% that the stock will remain below Blim between 2022 and the beginning of 2024. The probability of stock growth to 2024 is 50% with removals of 3,100 t and 75% with removals of 1,600 t, and 93% when there are no removals. Natural mortality plays an important role in projections for this stock. If natural mortality rates are appreciably different from those used, projected outcomes will differ from values reported above.