Évaluation du stock de morue franche (Gadus morhua) de l'est du banc de Georges en 2024

Abstract

Status The 2024 spawning stock biomass (SSB, 10.9 kt) is at 42% of the limit reference point (LRP; 24.9 kt), placing the stock in the critical zone with a very high probability (>98%). Trends The 2024 SSB is 10.9 kt, which represents a small increase from the series low of 7.96 kt in 2022. Fishing mortality (F) has remained below 0.05 since 2017 and the 2024 estimate is 0.03. Over the last three years, recruits (per unit of SSB) have been the highest since 1978, within the context of record low spawning stock biomass. However, this has not resulted in sustained increases in the number of fish at ages 3+. Estimated loss of aged 4+ fish continues to be high, with natural mortality (M) inferred to be the primary cause. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The most commonly identified contributors to natural mortality for Atlantic Cod in this region are high temperature and predation. Both have undergone substantial changes in recent years. The presence of older fish in deeper waters within the area indicates earlier movement off the bank post-spawning. Although the mechanism for this shift has not been identified, it is likely related to ecosystem changes (e.g., temperature, predation, competition). Stock Advice Given the long-term projection of biomass, it is unlikely that the SSB will exceed the LRP within two generations, even in the absence of fishing. Projections for this stock are provided for 2026 under various fishing scenarios, including no catch. There is no fishing level which will improve stock outlook under current productivity dynamics. Removals of 473 mt (F=0.052) correspond to the maximum F associated with a very low probability (<5%) of preventable decline in two generations (2032). Other Management Questions A review of the May Test Fishery data found higher proportions of ripe and spawning Cod and Haddock in May compared to June through August. While an acceptable risk threshold for interactions with spawning Cod and/or Haddock has not been established, the results of the analysis demonstrate an earlier opening of the fishery would have a higher risk of interaction with spawning Cod and/or Haddock.