Stock Assessment of Lobster (Homarus americanus) in Lobster Fishing Area 38 for 2024

Abstract

Status The 2024 LFA 38 Lobster commercial biomass index is 1,001 t, which is approximately 10 times the limit reference point (LRP; 99.4 t). Trends Landings in LFA 38 have been trending downward since the time series high in 2016. Landings in the terminal year are 48% of the peak landings in 2016. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) has decreased since the time series high in 2016 with current estimates comparable to 2013. Hyperstability in the CPUE index is likely occurring. The commercial survey biomass index has been stable since 2021. In 2024 the commercial biomass estimate is 49% of the mean of the 3 highest estimates from the time series. Relative fishing mortality decreased following 2002 remaining low and variable through the time series. Given the reports on increased unreported harvesting, the increase in relative fishing mortality is likely underestimated. Ecosystem and Climate Change Considerations The Bay of Fundy is experiencing rising temperatures, and changes in salinity, affecting lobster development and ecosystem productivity. These changes combined with ocean acidification, will impact lobster life cycle timing, distribution, and catchability. Short-term climate fluctuations will influence annual fisheries performance irrespective of population changes. Longer-term decreases in pH, increases in temperature, and variability in food availability will likely affect lobster populations in a multitude of ways; however, the magnitude of these impacts is currently unknown. Stock Advice The LFA 38 Lobster stock has been managed with consistent measures since the late 1990s – early 2000s, and stock indicators have fluctuated through this time. Trends in primary and secondary indicators are above the long-term averages but are lower than recent high productivity periods. Commercial biomass is well above the LRP.