Scénarios contrefactuels des effets de la vaccination et des mesures de santé publique sur les cas de COVID-19 au Canada : qu’est-ce qui aurait pu arriver?

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01f

Language of the publication
French
Date
2022
Type
Accepted manuscript
Author(s)
  • Ogden, Nicholas H.
  • Turgeon, Patricia
  • Fazil, Aamir
  • Clark, Julia
  • Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa
  • Tam, Theresa
  • Ng, Victoria
Publisher
L'Agence de la santé publique du Canada

Abstract

This study illustrates what may have happened, in terms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, hospitalizations and deaths in Canada, had public health measures not been used to control the COVID-19 epidemic, and had restrictions been lifted with low levels of vaccination, or no vaccination, of the Canadian population. The timeline of the epidemic in Canada, and the public health interventions used to control the epidemic, are reviewed. Comparisons against outcomes in other countries and counterfactual modelling illustrate the relative success of control of the epidemic in Canada. Together, these observations show that without the use of restrictive measures and without high levels of vaccination, Canada could have experienced substantially higher numbers of infections and hospitalizations and almost a million deaths.

Subject

  • Health

Rights

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

Pagination

322-333

Peer review

Yes

Open access level

Green

Identifiers

ISSN
1719-3109

Article

Journal title
Relevé des maladies transmissibles au Canada
Journal volume
48
Journal issue
7/8

Citation(s)

Ogden NH, Turgeon P, Fazil A, Clark J, Gabriele-Rivet V, Tam T, Ng V. Scénarios contrefactuels des effets de la vaccination et des mesures de santé publique sur les cas de COVID-19 au Canada : qu’est-ce qui aurait pu arriver? Relevé des maladies transmissibles au Canada 2022;48(7/8):322–33. https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01f

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Collection(s)

Communicable diseases

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