Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada : What could have happened?

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01

Language of the publication
English
Date
2022
Type
Accepted manuscript
Author(s)
  • Ogden, Nicholas H.
  • Turgeon, Patricia
  • Fazil, Aamir
  • Clark, Julia
  • Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa
  • Tam, Theresa
  • Ng, Victoria
Publisher
The Public Health Agency of Canada

Abstract

This study illustrates what may have happened, in terms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, hospitalizations and deaths in Canada, had public health measures not been used to control the COVID-19 epidemic, and had restrictions been lifted with low levels of vaccination, or no vaccination, of the Canadian population. The timeline of the epidemic in Canada, and the public health interventions used to control the epidemic, are reviewed. Comparisons against outcomes in other countries and counterfactual modelling illustrate the relative success of control of the epidemic in Canada. Together, these observations show that without the use of restrictive measures and without high levels of vaccination, Canada could have experienced substantially higher numbers of infections and hospitalizations and almost a million deaths.

Subject

  • Health,
  • Coronavirus diseases,
  • Immunization

Rights

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

Pagination

292-302

Peer review

Yes

Open access level

Green

Identifiers

ISSN
1481-8531

Article

Journal title
Canada Communicable Disease Report
Journal volume
48
Journal issue
7/8

Citation(s)

Ogden NH, Turgeon P, Fazil A, Clark J, Gabriele-Rivet V, Tam T, Ng V. Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened? Can Commun Dis Rep 2022;48(7/8):292–302. https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01

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Collection(s)

Communicable diseases

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