Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada : What could have happened?

Ogden, Nicholas H.; Turgeon, Patricia; Fazil, Aamir; Clark, Julia; Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa; Tam, Theresa; Ng, Victoria

Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada : What could have happened?

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dc.contributor.author: Ogden, Nicholas H.; Turgeon, Patricia; Fazil, Aamir; Clark, Julia; Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa; Tam, Theresa; Ng, Victoria
dc.date.accessioned: 2023-06-12T13:36:51Z
dc.date.available: 2023-06-12T13:36:51Z
dc.date.issued: 2022
dc.description.abstract - en: This study illustrates what may have happened, in terms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, hospitalizations and deaths in Canada, had public health measures not been used to control the COVID-19 epidemic, and had restrictions been lifted with low levels of vaccination, or no vaccination, of the Canadian population. The timeline of the epidemic in Canada, and the public health interventions used to control the epidemic, are reviewed. Comparisons against outcomes in other countries and counterfactual modelling illustrate the relative success of control of the epidemic in Canada. Together, these observations show that without the use of restrictive measures and without high levels of vaccination, Canada could have experienced substantially higher numbers of infections and hospitalizations and almost a million deaths.
dc.description.abstract-fosrctranslation - fr: Cette étude illustre ce qui aurait pu arriver, en ce qui concerne les infections, les hospitalisations et les décès liés à la maladie à coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) au Canada, si des mesures de santé publique n’avaient pas été utilisées pour contrôler l’éclosion de COVID-19 et si les restrictions avaient été levées avec de faibles taux de vaccination, ou aucune vaccination, de la population canadienne. La chronologie de l’éclosion au Canada et les interventions de santé publique utilisées pour la contrôler sont examinées. Des comparaisons avec les résultats obtenus dans d’autres pays et des modèles contrefactuels illustrent le succès relatif du contrôle de l’éclosion au Canada. Ensemble, ces observations montrent que sans l’application de mesures restrictives et sans niveaux élevés de vaccination, le Canada aurait pu connaître un nombre substantiellement plus élevé d’infections et d’hospitalisations et près d’un million de décès.
dc.identifier.citation: Ogden NH, Turgeon P, Fazil A, Clark J, Gabriele-Rivet V, Tam T, Ng V. Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened? Can Commun Dis Rep 2022;48(7/8):292–302. https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01
dc.identifier.doi: https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01
dc.identifier.issn: 1481-8531
dc.identifier.uri: https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/689
dc.language.iso: en
dc.publisher: The Public Health Agency of Canada
dc.relation.istranslationof: https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/690
dc.rights - en: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.rights - fr: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - en: Green
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - fr: Vert
dc.rights.uri - en: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.uri - fr: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.fr
dc.subject - en: Health; Coronavirus diseases; Immunization
dc.subject - fr: Santé; Maladie à coronavirus; Immunisation
dc.subject.en - en: Health; Coronavirus diseases; Immunization
dc.subject.fr - fr: Santé; Maladie à coronavirus; Immunisation
dc.title - en: Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada : What could have happened?
dc.type - en: Accepted manuscript
dc.type - fr: Manuscrit accepté
local.article.journalissue: 7/8
local.article.journaltitle: Canada Communicable Disease Report
local.article.journalvolume: 48
local.pagination: 292-302
local.peerreview - en: Yes
local.peerreview - fr: Oui