Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada : What could have happened?
- DOI
- Language of the publication
- English
- Date
- 2022
- Type
- Accepted manuscript
- Author(s)
- Ogden, Nicholas H.
- Turgeon, Patricia
- Fazil, Aamir
- Clark, Julia
- Gabriele-Rivet, Vanessa
- Tam, Theresa
- Ng, Victoria
- Publisher
- The Public Health Agency of Canada
Abstract
This study illustrates what may have happened, in terms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, hospitalizations and deaths in Canada, had public health measures not been used to control the COVID-19 epidemic, and had restrictions been lifted with low levels of vaccination, or no vaccination, of the Canadian population. The timeline of the epidemic in Canada, and the public health interventions used to control the epidemic, are reviewed. Comparisons against outcomes in other countries and counterfactual modelling illustrate the relative success of control of the epidemic in Canada. Together, these observations show that without the use of restrictive measures and without high levels of vaccination, Canada could have experienced substantially higher numbers of infections and hospitalizations and almost a million deaths.
Subject
- Health,
- Coronavirus diseases,
- Immunization
Rights
Pagination
292-302
Peer review
Yes
Open access level
Green
Identifiers
- ISSN
- 1481-8531
Article
- Journal title
- Canada Communicable Disease Report
- Journal volume
- 48
- Journal issue
- 7/8
Relation
- Is translation of:
- https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/690
Citation(s)
Ogden NH, Turgeon P, Fazil A, Clark J, Gabriele-Rivet V, Tam T, Ng V. Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened? Can Commun Dis Rep 2022;48(7/8):292–302. https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v48i78a01