Evaluation of surface conditions from operational forecasts using in situ saildrone observations in the Pacific Arctic

Zhang, Chidong; Levine, Aaron F.; Wang, Muyin; Gentemann, Chelle; Mordy, Calvin W.; Cokelet, Edward D.; Browne, Philip A.; Yang, Qiong; Lawrence-Slavas, Noah; Meinig, Christian; Smith, Gregory; Chiodi, Andy; Zhang, Dongxiao; Stabeno, Phyllis; Wang, Wanqiu; Ren, Hong-Li; Peterson, K. Andrew; Figueroa, Silvio N.; Steele, Michael; Barton, Neil P.; Huang, Andrew; Shin, Hyun-Cheol

doi:https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/2888

Evaluation of surface conditions from operational forecasts using in situ saildrone observations in the Pacific Arctic

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dc.contributor.author: Zhang, Chidong; Levine, Aaron F.; Wang, Muyin; Gentemann, Chelle; Mordy, Calvin W.; Cokelet, Edward D.; Browne, Philip A.; Yang, Qiong; Lawrence-Slavas, Noah; Meinig, Christian; Smith, Gregory; Chiodi, Andy; Zhang, Dongxiao; Stabeno, Phyllis; Wang, Wanqiu; Ren, Hong-Li; Peterson, K. Andrew; Figueroa, Silvio N.; Steele, Michael; Barton, Neil P.; Huang, Andrew; Shin, Hyun-Cheol
dc.date.accepted: 2022-02-17
dc.date.accessioned: 2024-08-26T15:08:08Z
dc.date.available: 2024-08-26T15:08:08Z
dc.date.issued: 2022-06-17
dc.date.submitted: 2020-11-17
dc.description.abstract - en: Observations from uncrewed surface vehicles (saildrones) in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas during June–September 2019 were used to evaluate initial conditions and forecasts with lead times up to 10 days produced by eight operational numerical weather prediction centers. Prediction error behaviors in pressure and wind are found to be different from those in temperature and humidity. For example, errors in surface pressure were small in short-range (<6 days) forecasts, but they grew rapidly with increasing lead time beyond 6 days. Non-weighted multimodel means outperformed all individual models approaching a 10-day forecast lead time. In contrast, errors in surface air temperature and relative humidity could be large in initial conditions and remained large through 10-day forecasts without much growth, and non-weighted multimodel means did not outperform all individual models. These results following the tracks of the mobile platforms are consistent with those at a fixed location. Large errors in initial condition of sea surface temperature (SST) resulted in part from the unusual Arctic surface warming in 2019 not captured by data assimilation systems used for model initialization. These errors in SST led to large initial and prediction errors in surface air temperature. Our results suggest that improving predictions of surface conditions over the Arctic Ocean requires enhanced in situ observations and better data assimilation capability for more accurate initial conditions as well as better model physics. Numerical predictions of Arctic atmospheric conditions may continue to suffer from large errors if they do not fully capture the large SST anomalies related to Arctic warming.
dc.description.fosrcfull - en: Copyright [2022] American Meteorological Society (AMS). For permission to reuse any portion of this Work, please contact <a href = "mailto: permissions@ametsoc.org">permissions@ametsoc.org</a>. Any use of material in this Work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 U.S. Code § 107) or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC § 108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (<a href="https://www.copyright.com">https://www.copyright.com</a>). Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (<a href="https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy">https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy</a>)
dc.description.fosrcfull-fosrctranslation - fr: Droit d'auteur [2022] American Meteorological Society (AMS). Pour obtenir l'autorisation de réutiliser toute partie de cette œuvre, veuillez contacter <a href = "mailto: permissions@ametsoc.org">permissions@ametsoc.org</a>. Toute utilisation d'un élément de cette œuvre considérée comme une "utilisation équitable" par l'article 107 de la loi américaine sur le droit d'auteur (U.S. Copyright Act, 17 U.S. Code § 107) ou satisfaisant aux conditions énoncées à l'article 108 de la loi américaine sur le droit d'auteur (U.S. Copyright Act, 17 U.S. Code § 108) ne requiert pas l'autorisation de l'AMS. La republication, la reproduction systématique, l'affichage sous forme électronique, par exemple sur un site web ou dans une base de données interrogeable, ou toute autre utilisation de ce matériel, à l'exception de ce qui est exempté par la déclaration ci-dessus, nécessite une autorisation écrite ou une licence de la part de l'AMS. Toutes les revues et monographies de l'AMS sont enregistrées auprès du Copyright Clearance Center (<a href="https://www.copyright.com">https://www.copyright.com</a>). Des détails supplémentaires sont prévu dans la déclaration de politique de droit d'auteur de l'AMS, disponible sur le site web de l'AMS (<a href="https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy">https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy</a>)
dc.identifier.doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0379.1
dc.identifier.issn: 0027-0644; 1520-0493
dc.identifier.uri: https://open-science.canada.ca/handle/123456789/2888
dc.language.iso: en
dc.publisher: American Meteorological Society
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - en: Green
dc.rights.openaccesslevel - fr: Vert
dc.subject - en: Nature and environment; Science and technology
dc.subject - fr: Nature et environnement; Sciences et technologie
dc.subject.en - en: Nature and environment; Science and technology
dc.subject.fr - fr: Nature et environnement; Sciences et technologie
dc.title - en: Evaluation of surface conditions from operational forecasts using in situ saildrone observations in the Pacific Arctic
dc.type - en: Article
dc.type - fr: Article
local.article.journalissue: 6
local.article.journaltitle: Monthly Weather Review
local.article.journalvolume: 150
local.pagination: 1437-1455
local.peerreview - en: Yes
local.peerreview - fr: Oui
local.requestdoi: No

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