COVID-19 seroprevalence in Canada modelling waning and boosting COVID-19 immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network study
- DOI
- Language of the publication
- English
- Date
- 2021-12-23
- Type
- Article
- Author(s)
- Dick, David W.
- Childs, Lauren
- Feng, Zhilan
- Li, Jing
- Röst, Gergely
- Buckeridge, David L.
- Ogden, Nick H.
- Heffernan, Jane M.
- Publisher
- MDPI
Abstract
COVID-19 seroprevalence changes over time, with infection, vaccination, and waning immunity. Seroprevalence estimates are needed to determine when increased COVID-19 vaccination coverage is needed, and when booster doses should be considered, to reduce the spread and disease severity of COVID-19 infection. We use an age-structured model including infection, vaccination and waning immunity to estimate the distribution of immunity to COVID-19 in the Canadian population. This is the first mathematical model to do so. We estimate that 60–80% of the Canadian population has some immunity to COVID-19 by late Summer 2021, depending on specific characteristics of the vaccine and the waning rate of immunity. Models results indicate that increased vaccination uptake in age groups 12–29, and booster doses in age group 50+ are needed to reduce the severity COVID-19 Fall 2021 resurgence.
Subject
- Health
Keywords
- seroprevalence,
- COVID-19,
- infectious disease modelling,
- mathematical epidmiology
Rights
Pagination
1-19
Peer review
Yes
Open access level
Gold
Identifiers
- PubMed ID
- 35062678
- ISSN
- 2076-393X
Article
- Journal title
- Vaccines
- Journal volume
- 10
- Journal issue
- 1
- Article number
- 17