COVID-19 seroprevalence in Canada modelling waning and boosting COVID-19 immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network study

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10010017

Language of the publication
English
Date
2021-12-23
Type
Article
Author(s)
  • Dick, David W.
  • Childs, Lauren
  • Feng, Zhilan
  • Li, Jing
  • Röst, Gergely
  • Buckeridge, David L.
  • Ogden, Nick H.
  • Heffernan, Jane M.
Publisher
MDPI

Abstract

COVID-19 seroprevalence changes over time, with infection, vaccination, and waning immunity. Seroprevalence estimates are needed to determine when increased COVID-19 vaccination coverage is needed, and when booster doses should be considered, to reduce the spread and disease severity of COVID-19 infection. We use an age-structured model including infection, vaccination and waning immunity to estimate the distribution of immunity to COVID-19 in the Canadian population. This is the first mathematical model to do so. We estimate that 60–80% of the Canadian population has some immunity to COVID-19 by late Summer 2021, depending on specific characteristics of the vaccine and the waning rate of immunity. Models results indicate that increased vaccination uptake in age groups 12–29, and booster doses in age group 50+ are needed to reduce the severity COVID-19 Fall 2021 resurgence.

Subject

  • Health

Keywords

  • seroprevalence,
  • COVID-19,
  • infectious disease modelling,
  • mathematical epidmiology

Rights

Pagination

1-19

Peer review

Yes

Open access level

Gold

Identifiers

PubMed ID
35062678
ISSN
2076-393X

Article

Journal title
Vaccines
Journal volume
10
Journal issue
1
Article number
17

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Collection(s)

Communicable diseases

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